Election loss, rout, or wipeout? Three Tory outcomes predicted by the polls
Scenarios using a large-scale data model that predicts individual seat tallies indicate anything from 53-155 Tory MPsSo-called MRP polls, which use large-scale polling data to extrapolate individual seat tallies, have become something of an obsession in UK politics since an early version by YouGov predicted 2017’s hung parliament, while other surveys were tipping an easy Conservative win.So popular are MRPs, an acronym for a very technical approach known as multilevel regression and post-stratification, that three were published on a single day this week. All gave pretty different results, particularly when it came to the fate of the Tories. Continue reading...
Scenarios using a large-scale data model that predicts individual seat tallies indicate anything from 53-155 Tory MPs
So-called MRP polls, which use large-scale polling data to extrapolate individual seat tallies, have become something of an obsession in UK politics since an early version by YouGov predicted 2017’s hung parliament, while other surveys were tipping an easy Conservative win.
So popular are MRPs, an acronym for a very technical approach known as multilevel regression and post-stratification, that three were published on a single day this week. All gave pretty different results, particularly when it came to the fate of the Tories. Continue reading...
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